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Teaching >
HP452 Preservation Senior Seminar >
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| Bicentennial house, Williamstown, Massachusetts. |
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| Scenario planning, with its quadrant system typically used,
ends up being somewhat of a black-or-white analysis — intentionally.
But this method is careful to note that after such analysis,
that reality may be much more blended. |
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2020: The Role of Preservation in Fifteen Years
Scenario Planning
For starters, it is useful to look at sceario planning [defined
at Wikipedia],
a tool used primariy for businesses, but also applicable to the
scenarios of community, a nation, and the world. Start with Wilkinson's
How to
Build Scenarios, and proceed.
- Successful Scenario Planning, Janus [Download as PDF
file.]
- Ogilvy, Jay and Erik Smith. Mapping Public and Private
Scenario Planning: Lessons from Regional Projects, Global
Business Network, December 2004 [Download here
as 260 KB PDF file.]
- Wilkinson, Lawrence. How
to Build Scenarios, Wired Magazine
- van der Heijden. Kees. Scenarios, Strategy and the Strategy
Process. Global Business Network, August 1997 [Download here.]
- Schwartz, Peter and Jay Ogilvy. Plotting Your Scenarios:
An Introduction to the Art and Process of Scenario Planning,
Scenario Thinking, Global Business Network, December 2004 [Download
here
as 1.1 MB PDF file] Read summary. Download PDF file and skim.
- Fahey, Liam and Robert M. Randall, editors. Learning from
the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. Jossey-Bass,
1997 [View at Jossey-Bass.]
Summary by publisher.
- Ogilvy, James A. Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning
As a Tool for A Better Tomorrow. Oxord University Press, 2002.
[View
on Amazon.]
- Global
Management Thinking Articles, Greater Viability.
Planning
IIn preservation, and even more so in the very profession itself,
plannign refers to specific such as Urban Planning, Regional Planning,
Comprehensive Planning — all sorts of planning specific to
the profession, but, frequently (and especially historically), with
little congruity, or usefulness to the process of planning, the
capacity of decisionmakers, and the involvement of stakeholders.
Keep this in mind when looking through the "planning toolbox".
Varied Perspectives
"Winner write our history." Do planners write our future?
Who plans? Why? Look at various perscpectives (ideologies, etc.)
of planning. Are the "planning" futures in conguity with
the "big-scope", more global, futures.
- Kunstler, James Howard. The Long Emergency: What's going to
happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle? Rolling
Stone, March 24, 2005. Based on Kunstler's book, The Long
Emergency:: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First
Century, Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005. View
on Amazon.
- Mapping
the Global Future: Report of The National Intelligence Council's
2020 Project, Central Intelligence Agency, December 2004.
(Download PDF file:
to read pp. 8-18, print Adobe PDF pages 11-22). Executive
Summary only.
- News of Future: Future
News for Year 202 and Beyond.
- Eye to the
future: 2020. Maricopa County, Arizona. [How will Phoenix
really be?]
- Region 2020. The 34
goals
sound laudable, as are the 217 strategies.
Will this work?
The Future, Today
[Articles to be provided by email.]
You
In tandem with your essay for Issue 1 2020, prepare a new résumé
— this time as written in the year 2020.
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